The Empirical Analysis of Long-term Equilibrium and Cause Relationship between GDP and Fiscal Expenditure on Science and Technology

摘要

This article is related to the long-term equilibrium test of the relationship between the total fiscal expenditure on science and technology (FST) and GDP growth, based on the empirical research on the statistical data from the China Statistical Yearbook 1956-2010.Firstly, stability is studied through the variables by E-G method and an ECM model is built on the basis of three models result of trend term and intercept term. Then, Granger causal test is applied to accomplish the empirical research on the causal relationship between the variables. The empirical results demonstrate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between FST and GDP, the growth of FST and the growth of GDP are Granger cause with each other.Further, a series of advices are proposed for the interactions between the domestic GDP growth and fiscal expenditure growth on science and technology.