A behavioural model for the modal choice in the trip-chains

摘要

In this paper a modal split model is proposed, that reproduces the choice of the predominant transport mode in a trip-chain. The specified model is a Multinomial Logit, with five choice alternatives: foot, motorcycle, car by driver, car by passenger, bus. In the formulation of the systematic utility of the choice alternatives, in addition to variables representative of the supply performances, as travel time and cost, some socio-economic variables have been included, as age, sex, professional condition, et c.. Moreover, two variables, referred to the type of activity and the number of trips made during the tour, have been considered; the influence of these last factors is often disregarded in the modal split models reported in literature; on the contrary, in this work the mentioned variables have been considered to analyze the phenomenon, not only in relation to the supply performances, but also to take account of the users behaviour. The models have been calibrated on the base of a survey made in a medium-sized town; they verify the usual statistical tests on goodness-of-fit.