The research on modeling of unconventional emergency decision making process under scenario evolution

摘要

By studying the scenario evolution mechanism of unconventional Emergency Decision-making and its formalized and graphical modeling method, this paper proposes an improved colored Petri net for scenario evolution modeling of emergency decision-making process, and simulates the process of oil spill emergency decision-making, and analyses the key nodes.This paper validates the reliability of the model by CPN_tools software, and proves that the proposed method effectively solves the complex decision-making process modeling problem under the condition of multi-organization decision-making cooperation and dynamic evolution of scenarios.It provides a method for rapid establishment of decision-making process for emergency decision making in unconventional emergencies.