The Use of Automated Systems for Economic Analysis of NPP Construction Projects in Light of Risk Impact Assessment

摘要

This article examines the application of Decision Support Systems (DSS) in the nuclear industry. It presents a comprehensive risk assessment methodology for an NPP construction investment projects and the methods of nuclear power project economic analysis, implemented with the use of an automated system. The two risks that must be taken into account when assessing investment projects are the following: an information risk and a risk of incomplete power generation at an NPP. The article describes an information message tone evaluation system that uses the Naive Bayes Classifier, provides calculation formulas and presents the calculations for several real projects of NPP constructions. Furthermore, the article presents a software program for the assessment of a project economic efficiency. This program can be used to resolve many issues at the State Corporation Rosatom. The software is a part of the DSS, which allows higher degree of forecast accuracy when making management decisions in planning foreign investment projects. The authors acknowledge support from the MEPhI Academic Excellence Project (Contract No. 02.a03.21.0005).