The 2011 annual verification report of the operational sandstorm numerical models of the National Meteorological Center

摘要

By utilizing the forecast products of the operational sandstorm numerical model (the Asia Sandstorm Numerical Forecasting Model of the Centre for Atmosphere Watch and Services of CMA(China Meteorological Administration), namely CUACE-Dust system, and the sandstorm numerical forecasting system of the National Meteorological Center, called NMC/CMA model) of National Meteorological Center, routine surface and upper air observations, the forecasting result of the two above models of the main sandstorm weather events in China in 2011 is verified. The result shows: the general forecasting occurring range and the intensity of the all previous sandstorm events of the CUACE-Dust system is basically close to the reality, especially in South Sinkiang. The forecasting result of the CUACE-Dust system is relatively unstable in the case of the weaker sandstorm events, the false alarm and miss ratio is much higher. The whole forecasting occurring range and the intensity of the all previous sandstorm events of the NMC/CMA model is with deviation according to the reality, the miss ratio is much higher in South Sinkiang, Northwest China, Inner Mongolia and North China. The overall forecasting effects of the surface wind field of the two models are good and close to the observation realities.