DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY FOR RISK MANAGEMENT OF WATER SUPPLY PROJECTS

摘要

Safekeeping of drinking water supply systems needs risk mitigation options to decrease the vulnerability against natural and manmade events which threaten the normal operation of these systems in meeting the water demands. Improper selection and implementation the best option leads to increasing the water projects economic and social costs. For proper decision making about possible risk reduction measures, an effective decision support tool is required with ability of considering the different uncertainties related to input data such as criteria values and weights, risk assessment procedure and decision makers with different idea and objectives. In this paper a hybrid decision making model has been presented to rank the risk management scenarios in field of water supply infrastructures regarding the different effective criteria and ranking methods in a group decision making space. To deal with the mentioned uncertainties and reliable decision making, a probabilistic based model of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) has been combined with two multi criteria decision making methods (MCDM) of PROMETHEE and TOPSIS to map a stochastic problem to so many deterministic problems. A case study in Iran has been utilized to show the capabilities of the presented model for prioritizing the urban water supply projects.