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Forecast models and the nature of the decision process: The case of a Brazilian electricity distribution company

机译:预测模型与决策过程的性质:巴西电力分配公司的案例

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Needs for adequate long-term planning in the execution of energy generation to meet growing demand leads to intense regulation on energy distributors. A research was realized by a Brazilian distribution company to identify the consumption prediction methods, the nature of the decision process and their specific interaction scheme. Were initially identified the models already used by other distribution companies. After, were studied the accuracy of the models and the models were adjusted based on the industrial consumption, with the use of Box-Jenkins methodology. Finally, were established criteria which have an impact on the decision process, using Herbert Simon's theory; demonstrating the limited value of any existing tool, and the importance of using more than one, integrating quantitative to qualitative analysis.
机译:在执行能源发电时需要足够的长期规划,以满足日益增长的需求导致能源分销商的强烈规定。 巴西分销公司实现了一项研究,以确定消费预测方法,决策过程的性质及其具体的相互作用方案。 最初确定了其他配送公司已经使用的模型。 之后,研究了模型的准确性,并且根据工业消费调整了模型的准确性,使用Box-Jenkins方法。 最后,建立了使用Herbert Simon的理论对决策过程产生影响的标准; 展示任何现有工具的有限价值,以及使用多个,整合定量分析的重要性。

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