Analysis of price fluctuation characteristics of hog industry chain in Yunnan Province: Based on livestock data 2001-2017

摘要

The monthly data of piglet, live pig, pork and pig feed prices in the hog industry chain in Yunnan Province from 2001 to 2017 were comprehensively analyzed using the Census-X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filter, and the medium- and long-term trends, seasonal fluctuations and cyclical cycles of prices in different segments of the hog industry chain were obtained. The study found that the price of piglets and live pigs in the hog industry chain in Yunnan Province have basically the same fluctuation pattern, with cycle cycles of 30 and 28 months, respectively; the price cycle of pork is consistent with the price of live pigs and has more frequent random fluctuations. This indicates that it is necessary to establish a price prediction and early warning mechanism for each link in the hog industry chain in Yunnan Province to prevent the risk of trend and random price fluctuations.