Analysis of power generation mix in China: An evaluation based on portfolio theory

摘要

Based on the portfolio theory,this paper integrates the grid absorption risk to study the efficient power generation mix of China in 2030,which combines some specific policy targets to compare different scenarios and analyze the benefits and shortcomings of generation portfolios.Furthermore,some reference generation portfolios in 2030 are evaluated.The results reveal that the power generation mix which includes more renewable energy sources is a more efficient portfolio in terms of risk minimization.In addition,the models also confirm the positive effects of introducing both the non-fossil generation and non-hydro renewable generation policy targets in 2030,from the perspective of cost and risk minimization.