Decomposition analysis on the macroeconomic drivers of the carbon emission from energy consumption in China

摘要

To make clear the relationship between the macroeconomic driving factors and the carbon emission (CE) of energy consumption (EC) in China, we first computed this CE during 2000-2014 and then analyzed the corresponding drivers by the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method. The results show the economic scale effect was the biggest driver. Its promoting effect was 12.69 Bt and the corresponding contribution was 163% during 2000-2014. The energy intensity's effect was the second largest but negative driver, with the mitigating effect of 4.6 Bt and inhibiting contribution of 59%, respectively. However, the effects of industrial structure and energy mix were very small, although all negative (mitigating). The energy mix was the last one, with the mitigating effect (contribution) of only 0.09 Bt (1%). From three different periods (2000-2005, 2005-2010 and 2010-2014), the industrial structure effects (contributions) were 0.13 Bt (5%), -0.06 Bt (-2%) and -0.59 Bt (-22%), respectively. This indicated the related policies of industries' structural adjustment have started to put up an obvious (despite of not big) impact on reducing the EC and corresponding CE in China, especially in 2010-2014. The similar results can also be gotten from the point view of the three different industries, especially in the secondary industry. So, based on these, some scientific policy suggestions for the low carbon and sustainable development in China were recommended.