A Forecast Method of Mobile Business Prospect Based on Bass Model

摘要

As an innovative e-commerce model, mobile business will definitely turn into an alluring industry in the near future. By using the statistics of the accumulative cellphone-on-line surfing netizen and the nonlinear least squares method which is offered by the "SPSS" software, the authors of this paper try to estimate the critical parameters in the "BASS" diffusion model and thus make an approximate forecast of the cellphone-on-line users scale. Furthermore, in this paper, the authors also make a detailed analysis of the factors which play an active role in the diffusion process.