Forecast of the Total Volume of Import-export Trade Based on Grey Modelling Optimized by Genetic Algorithm

摘要

Development of foreign trade of any country's economic growth is very important. The import-export trade has the important promotion effect to the country's economic development, and it is of great significance for formulating scientifically the strategy and the policy of the coordinated development between resources, environment and economy that to effectively forecast the total amount of import and export trade. A method based on genetic algorithm optimizing grey modeling process is introduced in this paper. This method makes full use of the advantages of the grey forecast model and characteristics of genetic algorithm to find global optimization. So the forecast model is more accurate. According to data from a province, the GM (1, 1) model for forecasting the total volume of import-export trade was given based on the grey system theories and genetic algorithm. The result indicates that the model can be used as the total volume of import-export trade an effective tool for forecasting.