The Empirical Analysis and Suggestions on the Factors of Promoting Tax Growth of Shandong Province

摘要

Based on the data of Shandong Province from 1978 to 2006, we analyze the long-term stable relationship between tax revenue and the factors including economic growth, industrial structure and tax reform by using co-integration analysis and error correction model. According to the analysis, we can come to the following conclusions: the correlation between economic growth and tax revenue is positive, and economic growth largely promotes the increase of tax revenue, but recently the tax growth exceeds the economic growth; the growth of tax revenue is mainly stimulated by the secondary industry, and the tax contribution ratio of the secondary industry heads the list; in the long term, the tax-sharingreform of 1994 promotes the growth of the tax revenue.