E-commerce: continuous growth or leveling out?

摘要

This paper challenges the basis of highly optimistic predictions for growth e.g. [2][3] and, a number of barriers to business to consumer e-commerce are discussed. In a corporate age when 'the customer is king' [14], it is questioned whether Internet shopping really is what consumers 'want' or 'need'. The discussion provides a socio-technical exposition underlying this optimism and counters it by a prudent and realistic model for progress in the area of e-commerce. As a result, we suggest that in the near future e-commerce may mature as a steadily growing niche market, an alternative way to shop, rather than the way. We suggest that the Internet will probably evolve as an all-embracing communication and information tool, rather than the 'shopping mall' of the future. A discussion on the future of business to customer e-commerce is presented.