STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS OF TECHNOLOGY LIFE CYCLE ON TECHNOLOGY COMMERCIALIZATION

摘要

A technology life cycle (TLC) can be a useful tool to help us to estimate the future development of a specific technology and make decisions whether to invest in it or not. However, it is not easy to understand the stage status of its TLC. One approach to analyzing TLC is to observe the patterns of patent applications or citations over time. In this paper, we build a model to calculate the TLC for a certain technology through the analysis of technology cycle time (TCT) based on backward citation of patents. The model includes the following steps: first, we focus on devising and assessing patent-based TLC indicators, then we choose some technologies with identified life cycle stages, and finally find strategic implications on firms' technology commercialization. The method used and result obtained in this study can be used in technology management practice to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest.