COMMERCIAL FISHING AND AQUACULTURE IMPLICATIONS OF A GREEN ECONOMY TRANSITION IN THE WESTERN CAPE

摘要

The Western Cape provincial government has prioritised shifting the Western Cape economy from its current carbon intensive and resource-wasteful nature to one that is smarter, greener and more economically sustainable. However, modern policy design often results in unintended outcomes or adverse secondary effects that were not considered by policy makers due to the complex and inter-related nature of the problem at hand. It is therefore anticipated that government intervention, as well as the gradual effect of climate change in the area, will influence fisheries and aquaculture in the Western Cape both directly and indirectly. Fisheries and aquaculture are identified as complex dynamic systems using systems thinking. Finally system dynamics modelling is introduced and proposed as a suitable tool for analysis and policy design of complex systems such as fisheries and aquaculture in the Western Cape. This article concludes that system dynamics modelling is an appropriate tool for determining the influence of both climate change and government intervention on fisheries and aquaculture in the Western Cape. It is then recommended to construct a system dynamics model with the overall modelling goal of evaluating proposed provincial governmental frameworks and action plans in terms of social, economic and environmental sustainability, taking into account the anticipated future climate change in the Province.