PROBABILISTIC RISK ASSESSMENT OF FLOOD DISASTER IN SOUTH KOREA BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE

摘要

The objective of this study was to develop a method of probabilistic fl ood risk assessment under climate change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios of climate change. The RCP4.5 scenario was selected to estimate future fl ood damages. The study area was the Korean peninsula. The spatial and temporal resolutions were on a city and county basis and for four time periods (1990s: 1976-2005, 2025s: 2011-2040, 2055s: 2041-2070 and 2085s: 2071- 2100). Proxy variables were selected to assess the fl ood risk. Z-score method was used to standardize indicators and principal component analysis was conducted to calculate the weighting of indicators. Probability distribution of each indicator was fi tted to analyze the fl ood risk. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was chosen as proper distribution. Convolution was used to merge all probability density functions. As a result, it was concluded that the fl ood risk could increase during 2025s period and continue to rise up to 2055s period. Especially, the extent of the increase from 1990s to 2025s is so large that the countermeasure need to be developed. It is also expected that southern area is more risky for fl ood. It is expected to be used as proper data to establish adaptation policy for climate change.