Evaluation and Simulation for Ecology Risk of Urban Expansion Based on SERA Model--Taking Selangor, Malaysia as An Example

摘要

This article aims to study the correlation between urbanization of space and the ecological environment and, from the change of pressure, resulting from urban expansion over temporal series, on regional ecology risk, judge the sustainability of urbanization, providing scientific basis for appraisal of the sustainable development of urbanization. First of all, with supports of spatial information technologies such as GIS and RS, and through the analysis of spatial mechanism of ecology risk, this study establishes the Spatial Ecology Risk Remote Sensing Evaluation Model (SERA) of urban expansion and analyses the concrete realizations of its relevant factors; after that, on the basis of the relevant data of the actual space and property of Selangor, Malaysia, this article carries out simulation of different pressures brought to regional ecology risk by the changes of urban expansion in four different periods from 1990 to 2002 in the research area; finally, this article verifies the model by utilizing the method of degree of interference on the landscape ecology. The results have shown that, from 1990 to 2002, the pressure rating of the regional ecology risk in that research area had been rising continually. These results comply with relevant laws of correlativity between urbanization and regional ecology in the research area. SERA model can properly appraise the pressure of regional ecology risk of urban expansion and provide scientific means to appraisal of the sustainable development of urbanization.