Economic impact of the Mid-Term Review on agricultural production, farm income and farm survival: A quantitative analysis for local sub-regions of Schleswig-Holstein in Germany

摘要

This study analyzes the impact of the Mid-Term Review (MTR) on the agricultural sector in Schleswig-Holstein, a federal state in Germany. First, a very detailed farm group linear programming model is built to quantify the effects on agricultural production and farm incomes. The production adjustment to the MTR and its impact on farm profit vary significantly between individual farms. These results depend mainly on the farm type and the resource endowments of the farms. Second, the impact on structural change is examined with a farm survival model. Although the MTR clearly reduces the incomes of several farm types, it accelerates the structural change only gradually.