Expert judgement for assessment of management influences on risk control

摘要

Quantitative assessment of management influences on risk control is a necessary step if we wish to modify external risk calculations and risk contours based on assessments of the quality of company management. Similar assessments are also relevant in developing and choosing management performance indicators in large companies. In both cases it is necessary to decide which of a number of potentially relevant management influences have a significant effect on the risk, and hence should be weighted most heavily in assessing the quality of the risk control. This paper reports the continuing studies conducted in Delft into methods to arrive at reliable estimates of these management influences. Results are reported on the management of equipment failure and human error in maintenance in the chemical process industry, and a trial concerning one aspect of operational safety in a passenger rail company. Two different approaches were used, one based on the Ⅰ-Risk model, the other linking with management influences drawn from TRIPOD.