Multi-agent simulation of the Moroccan Takaful insurance sector

摘要

The Islamic finance sector has experienced significant development in several countries of the world and has shown resilience in the face of various crises, including the financial crisis of 2008. According to scientists, this sector has the potential to grow significantly in the coming years. Takaful insurance plays a key role in this sector due to its dual economic and social vocation. Indeed, this activity involves several agents who help each other for different purposes while respecting Islamic principles. In this context, this work leads a reflection on a modelling of this sector by a multi-agent simulation. The latter allows us to deduce from the analysis of the micro-level behaviour of agents, the viability of the sector at the macro level. Indeed, this research models the ecosystem of the Moroccan Takaful insurance on the basis of a set of simulations aimed at measuring the impact of certain hypotheses on the viability of the sector. Also, the work was inspired by work done on the conventional insurance sector [1].The work was carried out on the basis of a Takaful Insurance and Reinsurance Company (EART) which manages a Takaful fund of the “Takaful Tamil” death guarantee of the Murabaha contract. The model assumes that the EART manages the fund on the basis of a Wakala contract and simulates the results under three scenarios relating to the technical and financial surplus distribution methods (prorata, selectivity and compensation).