MODELING AND EVALUATION OF KYOTO PROTOCOL FOR GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION FROM ECONOMICS VIEWPOINT ― Influence Analysis of USA for not Ratifying the Protocol―

摘要

In this paper we attempt to evaluate the influence of the decision of President Bush in March 2001 not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. For this purpose we first build the evaluation model to analyze the influence to the other major developed countries. Then, we simulate some scenarios and analyze the competitiveness and profit of these countries in the international market. As the results it is found that the international emissions trading included in the Kyoto mechanisms is an effective means to achieve the emission reduction target. Furthermore, the influence of the United States for not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol to the other major developed countries is small from economics point of view under the international emissions trading. However, the influence to the developing countries is still to be investigated.