THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CRUDE OIL PRICES, OIL EXPLORATION, AND CRUDE OIL SUPPLY

摘要

The aim of this research project is to deepen the understanding of the relationship between crude oil prices, oilexploration and crude oil supply. The project consists of two parts: The first part of the project is concerned with adetailed analysis of the relationship between oil price changes and exploration activity. It has only recently beenestablished that exploration rather than oil production is directly impacted by oil price changes [Anderson et al,2014; Mauritzen, 2016]. In particular the effect of oil price declines are not very well understood as historically oilprice decreases occurred considerably less often than oil price increases [Baumeister and Kilian, 2016]. The secondpart of this project analyses the relationship between exploration activities and future crude oil production.