Uncertainties in Degradation Rates Determination and Service Lifetime Prediction of PV Modules

摘要

Prediction of the service lifetime of PV modules and systems is crucial for all PV stakeholders. For example, PV manufacturers benefit from setting realistic warranties and researchers can improve the quality of the PV materials in order to achieve a desired lifetime, In order to be able to develop reliable predictive models, a thorough understanding of the different sources of uncertainties in degradation rate determination and lifetime prediction is indispensable, In this paper, three common sources of uncertainties due to; input data quality, modeling assumption and using a constant rate for lifetime predictions are discussed. The accuracy of the predictions due to input data quality are found to be location dependent. In locations with high module operating temperatures, the uncertainties are high compared to low operating temperature locations. The major pitfall of using a constant degradation rate is over estimation of the modules' lifetime.