Measuring Strategic Risk Dominance Using the Multi-Actor Value Model: A Study of the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System

摘要

In a joint development, the strategic risk of collaboration arises from the uncertainty about other stakeholders' actions. A project termination occurs when an individual deviates from the initial agreement, resulting in a loss of resources, time and effort. As the satellite industry appears to approach the shared-economy model, where under-utilized assets can be shared within a federation, this potentially leads to increasing dependencies amongst space-related organizations where collaboration is likely to increase. For these organizations, deciding to collaborate and develop large-scale systems such as the National Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) remains as an ubiquitous challenge. This paper demonstrates a method to measure the collaborative risk of joining the NPOESS program through the use of the Multi-actor Value Model (MAVM). The model is a decision making tool based on two factors. First, perceived utility (attributes) are extracted from a set of joint user requirements and the performance for each attribute is measured through the modeling and simulation of realistic polar-orbiting satellites architectures. Second, weighting factors represent the order of importance for attributes. Results for the NPOESS application case demonstrate how methods like MAVM can assess collaborative risk for joint projects.