Forecasting Methods to Support the Decision Framework of Prosumers in Deregulated Markets

摘要

In the present paper, a profit maximization problem for a prosumer is formulated and solved. The prosumer selects the electricity procurement approach among the pool market and forward contracts. Instead of treating the system marginal price as a stochastic variable, a price forecasting method is employed to forecast future prices. The prosumer owns a generation photovoltaic (PV) unit and sells the produced electricity into the network. To estimate future revenues, a PV power forecasting is proposed. Also, in order to estimate future bill savings, a load forecasting method is utilized for the prosumer’s daily load curves. The forecasting procedures for all three variables allows the prosumer to act strategically in the competitive electricity market and maximize the profitability. A comparison of forecasting algorithms is held in order to examine the influence of the forecasting accuracy in the profit maximization objective.