Systems Graphing Algorithm Method for Ship Evacuation Studies

摘要

This paper presents an outline of the development of a novel means to conduct evacuation modelling for maritime platforms using multi-commodity network theory and graph search techniques. SOLAS/MSC.l/Circ.1533 (2016)1 presents guidelines to conduct simplified/quasi-advanced analysis methods for the evacuation analysis of ships. The techniques presented by SOLAS are prescriptive and are limited such that path options with alternatives are difficult to analyse and don't consider uncertainty associated with dynamic and fluid evacuation environments, visibility, fire, smoke, ship motion and hazard propagation. A linear programming model using multi-commodity networking and graphing algorithm techniques has been implemented in Excel. This model specifies crew and passenger numbers onboard ship, allows for personnel specifics and simulates ships geometry and path traversal difficulty. The simulation checks viable paths and determines the shortest route to the nearest safe point/muster station based on path difficulty and environmental conditions. Additional iterations in time allows for the hazard to propagate. Monte Carlo is used to pinpoint uncertainty. Updates to confidence levels determine the final probable shortest path/time. Initial findings indicate this Excel technique is feasible. As a systems engineering tool, it can be used in trade-off studies for ship layout purposes.