MODELING DISEASES: PREVENTION, CURE AND MANAGEMENT

摘要

Diseases, like death and taxes, seem an inevitable part of life, with much of modern medicine acting to prevent, cure or manage them effectively. Modeling of diseases began over a century ago and has been one of the success stories of applied mathematics and, more recently, computer simulation. In this article, we describe modeling of both communicable and non-communicable diseases, and provide a review of the relevant literature. Two case studies are discussed, the first describing a modeling study of tuberculosis and HIV and the second capacity planning for stroke services. Our aim is to instigate a discussion of how modeling should be used in the future to answer the most up-to-date questions about global health, particularly those of disease prevention.