Diffusion and Simulation of Human Mobility Using Online Network Data to Examine Mobility Constraints

摘要

Hurricanes can significantly influence urban populations. The understanding of human movements in urban areas plays a key role in improving our disaster response, evacuation, and relief plans. However, there is a lack of research on human mobility perturbation under the influence of hurricanes. Furthermore, limited simulation studies have had access to empirical human travel data in urban areas during natural disasters. In this paper, we develop a computational model to simulate human mobility during the approaching and strike of hurricanes. Inspired by animal movements in a fragmented habitat, we examined human movements in New York City and its adjacent areas during the striking of Hurricane Sandy. We found that while the urban travels within New York City did not experience strong perturbation, the movements crossing the boundaries of the city decreased dramatically during Hurricane Sandy. Based on the patterns observed, we proposed a data-driven agent-based GIS model to simulate human movements during hurricanes. The model simulates human mobility patterns in three different scenarios: (1) the imposition of evacuation zones; (2) the occurrence of flooding; (3) and the abrupt failure of certain infrastructures. The research effort aims to inform policy-makers and support decision-making under different emergency situations that can arise during hurricanes.