Modeling the economics of flexible resource capability in power systems with large-scale renewable integration

摘要

We present a modeling approach to the economic assessment of flexible resources in the power generation mix, taking the renewable-forecasting error distribution into account. The model can analyze explicitly the production cost impact of renewable-power forecasting accuracy. A supposed power system with large-scale renewable integration in Japan in 2030 is taken as an example. The results show that the greater the forecasting error, the more that flexible resources such gas-fired power generation and energy storage systems are needed in the daily power-generation mix and the less that base power generation units are utilized. This has an impact on the yearly power generation cost as well. The unit power generation cost, in which only fossil-fuel-fired and nuclear-powered generation units are included, increases by 16-53% compared to that of a particular accurate forecast, depending on the degree of renewable forecasting error.