An estimation model of population in China using time series DMSP night-time satellite imagery from 2002-2010

摘要

Accurate data on the spatial distribution and potential growth estimation of human population are playing pivotal role in addressing and mitigating heavy lose caused by earthquake. Traditional demographic data is limited in its spatial resolution and is extremely hard to update. With the accessibility of massive DMSP/OLS night time imagery, it is possible to model population distribution at the county level across China. In order to compare and improve the continuity and consistency of time-series DMSP night-time satellite imagery obtained by different satellites in same year or different years by the same satellite from 2002-2010, normalized method was deployed for the inter-correction among imageries. And we referred to the reference F162007 Jixi city, whose social-economic has been relatively stable. Through binomial model, with average R2 0.90, then derived the correction factor of each year. The normalization obviously improved consistency comparing to previous data, which enhanced the correspondent accuracy of model. Then conducted the model of population density between average night-time light intensity in eight-economic districts. According to the two parameters variation law of consecutive years, established the prediction model of next following years with R~2of slope and constant typically 0.85 to 0.95 in different regions. To validate the model, taking the year of 2005 as example, retrieved quantitatively population distribution in per square kilometer based on the model, then compared the results to the statistical data based on census, the difference of the result is acceptable. In summary, the estimation model facilitates the quick estimation and prediction in relieving the damage to people, which is significant in decision-making.