Design of a decision support system to reduce net radiative forcing via optimal contrail generation

摘要

With global flight distance projected to increase by a factor of four by 2050, contrail generation is expected to increase by a similar factor. Optimized contrail presence can lead to decreased net radiative forcing (RF): the phenomenon that occurs when heat is trapped within the Earth's atmosphere. RF is projected to increase by 280% by 2050, adding significantly to global warming. A system needs to be developed to utilize the opportunity in aircraft contrail generation optimization; this will help to prevent radiation from entering the Earth's atmosphere and allow outgoing heat to escape. Controptimal is a decision support system for airline dispatch that was created to help address this gap and reduce net radiative forcing. Specifically, a simulation was developed to optimize contrail generation to lower net radiative forcing. Of the nine altitudes analyzed, two proved to lower net RF by at least 20% with the most optimal route flying at FL 330 and decreasing the baseline RF value by 94%. However, RF values were found to decrease further when the system used live weather data. The simulation utilized a network optimization to then conduct a tradeoff between net radiative forcing, fuel burn, and duration of flight. In a specific case study timestamped `2015-08-16 09:00,' Controptimal found an optimal route that began at FL 330 and ascended to FL 380 one hour into the flight. By flying this route, it decreased net RF by 94%, increased fuel burn by 3%, and increased flight time by approximately 4 minutes. This trajectory had a utility of 0.65, followed by an alternatives with the utility of 0.49. The results indicate that contrail presence could be planned to lower the net RF.