A Financial Risk Management Model Supported by Subjective Probability for New Product Development

摘要

New product development and release financial risk analysis have increased in importance in the literature due to the need for innovation and speed required, encouraging the development of new models and works regarding this topic. This paper presents an adapted model based on the literature regarding project development a prior risk evaluation in its initial phase, considering uncertainty. With this goal a model is presented that incorporates real options with expert's knowledge elicitation of technical uncertainty, and this uncertainty is modeled as a probability of success over time.