Comparison of Covid-19 Cases in Indonesia and Other Countries for Prediction Models in Indonesia Using Optimization in SEIR Epidemic Models

摘要

Coronavirus Disease 2019 or COVID-19 is a new disease that can cause respiratory and inflammatory disorders. As a new model virus the general public has difficulty finding its match and then consider it trivial. The spread of the disease caused by COVID virus 19 is set to become a pandemic by the WHO as of March 12, 2020. Development of covid-19 pandemic data in Indonesia, has claimed 1089 lives on May 17, 2020 (source: http://covid19.bnpb.go.id/) and is a major threat to global public health especially Indonesia. The pandemic behavior in one area can be learned by comparing behavior in other regions. We propose SEIR epidemic models (S = Suspect, E = Expose, I = Infected, and R = Recovered) to predict the behavior of covid-19 transmission in Indonesia with parameters of distribution, cure rate, mortality rate, communication rate and movement. The appropriate parameters to predict the behavior of the Covid-19 virus spreading in Indonesia, firstly, the number of cases that occurred in Indonesia are compared with other countries that were first exposed to this pandemic. Several countries in Asia, Australia, Europe and America are chosen for comparison. Comparisons are performed by examining the maximum correlation values in each country. The pattern of the number of cases that occurred in Indonesia is very similar to the UK, Malaysia and Australia. The first prediction maximum number of new cases per daily is 1,343 people occurring on May 15, 2020. The end of the pandemic is predicted on August 8-10, 2020 (circumstance 1). The second prediction maximum number of new cases per daily is 1,034 people occurring on May 30, 2020. The end of the pandemic is predicted on September 9-10, 2020 (circumstance 2). The SEIR model for predicting the number of Covid-19 cases is sufficient when there is no further development of this pandemic.