DETERMINATION OF FORECAST VALUE CONSIDERING ENERGY PRICING IN CALIFORNIA

摘要

Forecast value is investigated using day-ahead market (DAM) and real-time market (RTM) locational marginal prices (LMP) from the California Independent Service Operator (CAISO) Open Access Same-time Information System (OASIS) database. Assuming a 1 MW PV plant is collocated at California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) stations throughout California, revenue is calculated using global horizontal irradiance (GHI) forecasts from the North American Mesoscale Model (NAM) and recorded GHI from the CIMIS stations. Comparison of the true forecast revenue to a prefect forecast revenue shows that the prefect forecast revenue is always greater, but the yearly true forecast revenue is within 5% of the perfect forecast revenue for some sites. Revenue from a bias-corrected NAM forecast is used to show that biased forecasts can have a higher forecast value than neutral forecasts, which causes a disconnect between what makes a valuable forecast for a power seller versus a system operator.