Calculation of risk probability of levee landslide based on three-dimensional limit equilibrium theory

摘要

Landslide is a common failure mode for levee, and the safety of which is always assessed by the value of safety factor. However, the safety assessment using the index of safety factor is usually unreasonable due to the uncertainty of soil characteristics, in contrast, the risk analysis by consideration of such uncertainties is more reasonable. Therefore, in the paper, the risk probability of levee landslide can be obtained through reliability analysis by considering the randomness of strength parameters. In reliability analysis, an approach combining the three-dimensional theory for slope stability analysis and gradient optimization method for the solution of reliability index is proposed. In the approach, the resistance capability can be more sufficiently considered, as a result, it is more reasonable for stability assessment. Finally, a code for proposed approach is developed and the feasibility is verified through an example.