Research on Scientists and Technicians Forecasting: Evidence from China

摘要

Based on the statistical data during the period from 2003 to 2008 released by National Bureau of Statistics of China, this paper focused on forecasting the amount of the scientists and technicians in China, using GM (1, 1) model and regression model. The result of this empirical study is that the grey prediction theory can fit the scientists and technicians amount development precisely in China. The accuracy of the prediction result from GM (1, 1) model is higher than that from regression model, and corresponds with a distinction, which the grey theory can meet expectations with small samples or data. Research results show that this model established in this paper could provide valuable information for policy makers in their efforts to make appropriate technological policies.