Driving force analysis of LUCC and forecast method based on remote sensing in coal mining area

摘要

Guye District in Tangshan City was a study case in this paper, taking three temporal(1987, 1992 and 2001) remotely sensed imageries as data resource, and imageries were pretreated by ENVI and interpreted by human-computer interaction, three land use/cover classification data of remotely sensed imageries were obtained. Based on collecting lots of correlative information, the qualitative analysis for driving force of LUCC in Guye District from 1987 to 2001 was done from five aspects, which were economic development, population increase, coal mining, land reclamation, and political and economic policy. Principal component analysis was carried out using the software SAS8.1. We took economic data as base, and chose six analytical factors. The result illustrated that the main driving forces of LUCC in Guye District were economic development, coal output, and political and economic policy. According to Markov mode, the future LUCC structure was forecasted using MATLAB based on the transfer matrix of three stages and the LUCC data in 1987 and 1992. The prediction result showed that the forecasting result using different stages conformed to area change trends of corresponding stages.