A New Grey-Based System Forecasting Model and Its Application in the Dynamic Forecasting Problem of Oilfield Development during the Middle-Late Stage

摘要

Grey theory is a multidisciplinary and generic theory to cope with systems of poor or deficient information. In this paper, at first a new grey-based model MGM(1, n, m)is proposed based on the general MGM(1, n) forecasting model to deal with the forecasting problems of input-output systems. Then the efficiency and accuracy of this model is tested by applying it to the dynamic forecasting problem of oilfield development during the middle-late stage. Experimental results demonstrate the new method has obviously a higher prediction accuracy than the RBF (radial basis function) neural network model which is another well known method.