Econometric Analysis on Chengdu's GFR and Industry Policy

摘要

This paper deals with the relationship between GFR (government finance revenue) and productions of three industries. The econometric analysis' hypothesis is that GFR is proportionate to the growth of industry production. And the econometric analysis is based on EViews estimation,and the economic data is Chengdu's GFR and industry during 1995-2005 periods. EViews estimations tell us that GFR has the highest elasticity with secondary industry,which reach above 0.9; and both secondary industry and tertiary industry contribute above 90% to the growth of GFR; and via Douglas function,Manufacture sector and tertiary industry produce GFR in increasing scale economy pattern.All the results indicate that Chengdu is in excellent growth period. It is certain that manufacture industry and service industry will still be Chengdu's backbone should be emphasized. However,three sectors,agriculture,manufacture and service,will jointly responsible to the steady growth of GFR,which in turn will contribute to the prosperousness and harmonization of Chengdu.