ANALYSIS AND ASSESSMENT OF LAND USE CHANGE IN ALEXANDRIA, EGYPT USING SATELLITE IMAGES, GIS, AND MODELLING TECHNIQUES

摘要

Alexandria is the second largest urban governorate in Egypt and has seen significant urban growth in its modern and contem porary history. This study investigates the urban growth phenom enon in Alexandria, Egypt using the integration of rem ote sensing and GIS. The study has revealed some significant findings that can help in understanding the current and future trends of urban growth in Alexandria. The urban physical expansion and change were detected using Landsat satellite im ages. The satellite images of years 1984 and 1993 were first georeferenced, achieving a very sm all RMSE that provided high accuracy data for satellite image analysis. Then, the im ages were classified using a tailored classification schem e with accuracy of 93.82% and 95.27% for 1984 and 1993 im ages respectively. This high accuracy enabled detecting land use/cover changes with high confidence using a post-classification comparison method. One of the most important findings here is the loss of cultivated land in favour of urban expansion. If the current loss rates continued, 75% of green lands would be lost by year 2191. These hazardous rates call for an urban growth management policy that can preserve such valuable resources to achieve sustainable urban developm ent. The starting point of any management programme will be based on the modelling of the future growth. Modelling techniques can help in defining the scenarios of urban growth. In this study, the SLEUTH urban growth model was applied to predict future urban expansion in Alexandria until the year 2055. The application of this model in Alexandria of Egypt with its different environm entalcharacteristics is the first application outside USA and Europe. The results revealed that future urban growth would continue in the edges of the current urban extent, which means the cultivated lands in the east and the southeast of the city will continue to lose more day by day from their area.