Risk Assessment Model Affecting the Severity of Motorcycle Accidents in Metro Manila

摘要

Motorcycle accident is continuously increasing in number, and its death rate toll in the Philippines is progressively high (LTO, 2017). Based on records from WHO Philippines, there were a total of 11,264 deaths from accidents on Philippine roads. Around 5,970 or 53% of that number were riders or passengers of motorcycles. They also shared the total number of injured motorcycle riders and passengers for 2016, which reached an astounding 28,694 for in all. With this data, this paper aims to improve road safety in the country and increase awareness on the importance of safe driving for riders and their passengers. To analyze this problem, literature review, survey, statistical tools, risk analysis and causal analysis were used to verify significant factors affecting the severity and occurrences of motorcycle accidents in Metro Manila. Several factors were considered in the study and were categorized into (1) environmental factors, (2) human factors and (3) vehicle factors. By using correlation and regression analysis, significant factors affecting the severity of motorcycle accidents were identified as the following: weather condition, alcohol intoxication, traffic condition and vehicle maintenance. These factors were treated and analyzed using risk assessment method to determine the level of exposure of the riders and passengers to the risk factors identified in the study. Based on the result of risk level calculations, traffic condition has the highest risk for the drivers and passengers, followed by weather condition and alcohol intoxication while vehicle maintenance has the lowest risk. These factors were further analyzed using causal analysis to determine the root causes of these risks to the severity of motorcycle accidents and in order for the researchers to develop safety measures that would help minimize motorcycle accidents in the country.