Multifidelity, Multidisciplinary Design Under Uncertainty with Non-Intrusive Polynomial Chaos

摘要

The primary objective of this work is to develop an approach for multifidelity uncertainty quantification and to lay the framework for future design under uncertainty efforts. In this study, multifidelity is used to describe both the fidelity of the modeling of the physical systems, as well as the difference in the uncertainty in each of the models. For computational efficiency, a multifidelity surrogate modeling approach based on non-intrusive polynomial chaos using the point-collocation technique is developed for the treatment of both multi-fidelity modeling and multifidelity uncertainty modeling. Two stochastic model problems are used to demonstrate the developed methodologies: a transonic airfoil model and multi-disciplinary aircraft analysis model. The results of both showed the multifidelity modeling approach was able to predict the output uncertainty predicted by the high-fidelity model as a significant reduction in computational cost.