Evolutional Analysis for the South China Sea Dispute Based on the Two-Stage Attitude of Philippines

摘要

Due to different attitudes of ex-president and president of Philippines for the South China Sea dispute, the different equilibria of this conflict arose to facilitate the negotiation between China and Philippines. The evolutional conflict models resulted from decision makers' attitude based on option prioritization under the graph model for conflict resolution are constructed and analyzed in this paper. Compared with the first stage of the South China Sea dispute, the equilibrium of the second stage conflict is different from the first one because current presidential attitude of Philippines is not negative for Chinese government. The two-stage equilibria provide the valuable information that helps decision makers to choose suitable attitude that can be better to understand and resolve the conflict.