Avionics Equipment Failure Prediction Based on Genetic Programming and Grey Model

摘要

Avionics equipment failure prediction by conventional GM (Grey Model) may yield large forecasting errors. Combining GM (1, 1) model with genetic programming algorithm, a kind of GP-GM (1, 1) forecast model was established to minimize such errors. Forecasting sequence was calculated by means of GM (1,1) model, then genetic programming algorithm was used to modify them further, and the degradation trend prediction of characteristic parameters of avionics equipment was realized. The validity of GP-GM (1,1) prediction model was testified by tracking and forecasting the experiment data of avionics equipment in real environment.