A system dynamics based model for hepatic fibrosis in hepatitis C patients

摘要

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is the most common chronic disease in Egyptian society. It is often a silent disease and causing no symptoms until much of the liver has been damaged. In this paper we built a system dynamics model for the different life cycle stages of the HCV disease including the related factors using VENSIM PLE software. This dynamic model gave the chance to take different measures to prevent or minimize the occurrence of this disease and provide the ability to decrease the mortality rate from late stage, cirrhosis, by appropriate treatments. The accumulation of the consecutive stages of the HCV disease was an S-shape in the cirrhosis stage. This result suggests a good control on the HCV death rate.