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Bilateral Nuclear Cooperation in the Post-Cold War Era and Its Implication for Nuclear Nonproliferation

机译:冷战后的双边核合作及其对核不扩散的启示

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As a part of the academic endeavour in analysing the proliferation risks of nuclear power, bilateral civilian nuclear cooperation has been studied through both qualitative and quantitative analysis in order to establish the implications of such cooperation on nuclear proliferation. In this paper, a dataset of bilateral nuclear cooperation in the post-Cold War era, from 1990 to 2011, is presented to examine the correlation between civil nuclear cooperation between countries and their political and economics similarity as well as the level of general bilateral cooperation between them. This period is selected based on the observation that the geo-political landscape, as well as the conditions for civilian nuclear cooperation, have changed drastically after the end of the Cold War. Using linear regression, the analysis of this dataset indicates that economic factors, including the amount of foreign trade investment and the bilateral trade, positively increase the possibility for civil nuclear cooperation whereas factors related to political similarity are not statistically significant in this linear regression model. These observations can be considered complementary to the traditional view of civilian nuclear cooperation, in which political factors are often the main driving force for cooperation. Based on such findings, as well as the growing diversification of nuclear partnerships, the paper reviews the implication of bilateral nuclear cooperation on the global nonproliferation regime, including the traditional export control mechanisms like the Nuclear Supplier Groups, as well as provides some suggestions for its improvement.
机译:作为分析核电扩散风险的学术努力的一部分,已经通过定性和定量分析研究了双边民用核合作,以便确定这种合作对核扩散的影响。本文提出了1990年至2011年冷战后双边核合作的数据集,以研究各国之间的民用核合作与其政治和经济相似性之间的相互关系以及总体双边合作水平它们之间。选择这一时期的依据是,冷战结束后,地缘政治格局以及民用核合作条件发生了巨大变化。使用线性回归,对该数据集的分析表明,经济因素,包括对外贸易投资和双边贸易的额,正增加了民用核合作的可能性,而在这种线性回归模型中,与政治相似性相关的因素在统计上并不显着。这些意见可以被视为对民用核合作的传统观点的补充,在传统民用核合作的观点中,政治因素通常是合作的主要动力。基于这些发现以及核伙伴关系的日益多样化,本文回顾了双边核合作对全球防扩散制度的影响,包括诸如核供应商集团这样的传统出口控制机制,并为其提出了一些建议。改进。

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