INFRASTRUCTURE IMPLICATIONS OF A GREEN ECONOMY TRANSITION IN THE WESTERN CAPE PROVINCE OF SOUTH AFRICA

摘要

In the past decade, international recognition of the effects of climate change, environmental and ecological resource scarcities, and increases in poverty, have led to a growing consensus on the need for a transition towards a green economy. Within the South African context, a green economy transition is recognised as one of the key pathways towards achieving an environmentally sustainable, resource efficient, low-carbon economy. To achieve this transition, however, requires trans-disciplinary, integrated approaches to the management and design of infrastructures across all sectors. Of main interest in this paper is the transport infrastructure in the Western Cape Province of South Africa, which constitutes 10% of the Province's GDP, and is a crucial enabler to other sectors. However, due to the lack of efficiency with regards to cost, energy, emissions and lifestyle within the current transport configuration, a great need to develop a more sustainable system has risen. This paper aims to identify and investigate the complexity involved in response to a green economy transition in the Western Cape Province transport infrastructure system. The research effort examined studies of systems thinking, complex systems and transition theory, which formed the basis for identifying appropriate modelling techniques for evaluating and managing the complex transport infrastructure systems. A review of the Western Cape transport sector shows that complexities do exist in the transport infrastructure networks and may impact society, the economy, and the environment. To evaluate these complexities, systems dynamics was identified as an appropriate approach that can allow the modelling of different scenarios of a green economy transition in the transport sector, and can form the basis for informing policy- and decision-making on development and action plans. Future research efforts will focus on the development of a system dynamics model for the Western Cape transport infrastructure and the analysis of different investment options to enable the transition.