Trading and Poker: Using Computers to Take Intelligent Decisions

摘要

In order to be a successful poker player and/or a trader in stock markets it is necessary to acquire a specific set of skills. Despite the fact that both poker and trading involve a high degree of chance, it is crucial to use statistical models to analyse, interpret and quantify patterns that repeat themselves. For example in trading we analyse patterns related to price, volume, seasonal and sentiment trends while in poker we study patterns related to betting, sequences, ranges in different boards and psychological tendencies such as 'tells'. Therefore, the collection and generation of intelligence through complex software tools is a must. For example, we can use tools such as Tradestation, ProRealTime and Ninja Trader for trading, and Poker Tracker, Holdem Resources and Flopzilla in the world of poker. The key for success in poker and trading is to gain a small edge over the rest of players and be able to exploit it. Once we have developed our own method and strategy with a positive mathematical expectation, we need to put it in practice many times. These small advantages will in turn generate highly probable earnings, an important factor considering that the variance of results in these games is significant. In addition, a proper management and assess of risk is also fundamental to succeed. One of the characteristics that make both poker and trading such fantastic games is that they reward the best players in the long term, while still giving almost any player a chance to succeed in the short term. In this talk I will review the main tools and methodologies used by players and traders and will illustrate, with examples, the differences and similarities.