This paper presents a schedule-based passenger’s route choice estimation model for amulti-operator rail transit network, using Automatic Fare Collection (AFC) data. By introducingthe Train Schedule Connection Network, the route choice estimation is converted into a feasiblepaths set generation and weighted assignment problem. A major factor in route choice, the fail to-board (FtB) phenomenon due to overcrowding in peak periods, is modeled. A method forestimating the FtB parameters is described and a weighted assignment function based on FtBparameters is provided. The case of a typical commuting Origin-Destination pair in the BeijingSubway is analyzed in order to demonstrate the capability of the proposed model. Results showthat passenger route choice can be effectively estimated by the model. The model has potentialfor locating network capacity bottlenecks at the train run level and for evaluating the effects ofadjusting train timetables on passengers’ route choice.
展开▼
